Pivot Points in Forex: Mapping your Time Frame

It is useful to have a map and be able to see where the price is relative to previous market action. This way we can see how is the sentiment of traders and investors at any given moment, it also gives us a general idea of where the market is heading during the day. This information can help us decide which way to trade.

Pivot points, a technique developed by floor traders, help us see where the price is relative to previous market action.

As a definition, a pivot point is a turning point or condition. The same applies to the Forex market, the pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of the market changes from "bull" to "bear" or vice versa. If the market breaks this level up, then the sentiment is said to be a bull market and it is likely to continue its way up, on the other hand, if the market breaks this level down, then the sentiment is bear, and it is expected to continue its way down. Also at this level, the market is expected to have some kind of support/resistance, and if price can't break the pivot point, a possible bounce from it is plausible.

Pivot points work best on highly liquid markets, like the spot currency market, but they can also be used in other markets as well.

Pivot Points

In a few words, pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.

Why PP work?

They work simply because many individual traders and investors use and trust them, as well as bank and institutional traders. It is known to every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength and weakness of any market.

Calculating pivot points

There are several ways to arrive to the Pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).

Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:

Open: 1.2386 
High: 1.2474 
Low: 1.2376 
Close: 1.2458

The PP would be, 
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2439

What does this number tell us?

It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. And if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. On both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.

Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there is a eternal battle on deciding at white time we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT.

Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated taking the PP as a reference.

Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) — H 
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) — L 
Support 2 (S2) = PP — (R1 — S1) 
Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (R1 — S1)

Where, H is the High of the previous period and L is the low of the previous period

Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2439

S1 = (1.2439 * 2) — 1.2474 = 1.2404 
R1 = (1.2439 * 2) — 1.2376 = 1.2502 
R2 = 1.2439 + (1.2636 — 1.2537) = 1.2537 
S2 = 1.2439 — (1.2636 — 1.2537) = 1.2537

These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.

On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day.) This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. Also we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the Pivot point in a weekly or monthly basis is mostly used by long term traders, but it can also be used by short time traders, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

S1, S2, R1 AND R2...? An Objective Alternative

As already stated, the pivot point zone is a well-known technique and it works simply because many traders and investors use and trust it. But what about the other support and resistance zones (S1, S2, R1 and R2,) to forecast a support or resistance level with some mathematical formula is somehow subjective. It is hard to rely on them blindly just because the formula popped out that level. For this reason, we have created an alternative way to map our time frame, simpler but more objective and effective.

We calculate the pivot point as showed before. But our support and resistance levels are drawn in a different way. We take the previous session high and low, and draw those levels on today's chart. The same is done with the session before the previous session. So, we will have our PP and four more important levels drawn in our chart.

LOPS1, low of the previous session. 
HOPS1, high of the previous session. 
LOPS2, low of the session before the previous session. 
HOPS2, high of the session before the previous session. 
PP, pivot point.

These levels will tell us the strength of the market at any given moment. If the market is trading above the PP, then the market is considered in a possible uptrend. If the market is trading above HOPS1 or HOPS2, then the market is in an uptrend, and we only take long positions. If the market is trading below the PP then the market is considered in a possible downtrend. If the market is trading below LOPS1 or LOPS2, then the market is in a downtrend, and we should only consider short trades.

The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason the market stopped there from going higher/lower the previous session, or the session before that. We don't know the reason, and we don't need to know it. We only know the fact: the market reversed at that level. We also know that traders and investors have memories, they do remember that the price stopped there before, and the odds are that the market reverses from there again (maybe because the same reason, and maybe not) or at least find some support or resistance at these levels.

What is important about his approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively; they aren't just a level derived from a mathematical formula, the price reversed there before so these levels have a higher probability of being effective.

Our mapping method works on both market conditions, when trending and on sideways conditions. In a trending market, it helps us determine the strength of the trend and trade off important levels. On sideways markets it shows us possible reversal levels.

How we use our mapping method?

We at StraightForex (www.straightforex.com) use the mapping method in three different ways: as a trend identification (measure of the strength of the trend), a trading system using important levels with price behavior as a trading signal and to set the risk reward ratio (RR) of any given trade based on where the is the market relative to the previous session.

by Raul Lopez

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What's Fibonacci Forex Trading?

Fibonacci forex trading is the basis of many forex trading systems used by a great number of professional forex brokers around the globe, and many billions of dollars are profitable traded every year based on these trading techniques.

Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician and he is best remembered by his world famous Fibonacci sequence, the definition of this sequence is that it's formed by a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers; 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 ...But in the case of currency trading what is more important for the forex trader is the Fibonacci ratios derived from this sequence of numbers, i.e. .236, .50, .382, .618, etc.

These ratios are mathematical proportions prevalent in many places and structures in nature, as well as in many man made creations.

Forex trading can greatly benefit form this mathematical proportions due to the fact that the oscillations observed in forex charts, where prices are visibly changing in an oscillatory pattern, follow Fibonacci ratios very closely as indicators of resistance and support levels; maybe not to the last cent, but so close as to be really amazing.

Fibonacci price points, or levels, for any forex currency pair can be calculated in advance so that the trader will know when to enter or exit the market if the prediction given by the Fibonacci forex day trading system he uses fulfills its predictions.

Many people tries to make this analysis overly complicated scaring away many new forex traders that are just beginning to understand how the forex market works and how to make a profit in it. But this is not how it has to be. I can't say it's a simple concept but it is quite understandable for any trader once he or she has grasped the basics and has had some practice trading using Fibonacci levels along with other secondary indicators that will help to improve the accuracy of the entry and exit point for every particular trade.

Free chapters of a forex day trading system can be downloaded at http://www.1-forex.com in case you are interested in learning more about Fibonacci forex trading.

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Forex Trading Indicators and the Ever Changing Market Conditions

Once you enter the Forex trading world you will immediately notice the need of using technical analysis in order to find trends when looking at the forex charts and also the importance of being aware of when they first develop so you can ride the trend until it ends. The foreign exchange market is a very strong trending market, lots of ups and downs in short periods of time, and it's, therefore, a place where technical analysis can be very effective.

But you should always remember that the indicators are only giving you a high probability behavior the markets may show when you are trading, but will never tell you the behavior of the currency prices with total certainty.

If you want to become a profitable forex trader you will need to use as many technical indicators as you can, or create a personalized trading strategy based on a combination of these indicators, to recognize with the best accuracy possible the trend. In other words, a professional forex trader will try to identify the major trend, the intermediate trend, and the short-term trend and then construct his trades in that direction based on how long their rules allow him to hold a position.

The forex markets are always changing, that's why you should always have an open criterion when using your technical indicators. Markets will be changing and different combinations of indicators may be required with time in order to have the most accurate, highest probability, prediction of future currency price behaviors.

If the action of the market shows your judgment to be correct, then you must consider staying with the market' and look for the maximum profit on each trade, according to your risk-to-reward/equity management rules. If you happen to be in a bad day and the market goes against you, the smart trader will take profits and get out of that trade. In a narrow market, when prices are not going anywhere, but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate when the next big movement is going to be.

So, you must always be alert and open to use as many and as different indicators in order to stay tuned with the market and become a profitable trader at the end of the day.

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